Creating a future stress scenario for the yield curve is not easily done. Above all, it is something that has to be done carefully, because it can have negative repercussions for a financial institution.
A part of the curriculum of the Econometrics & Mathematical Economics master’s degree given in the VU University Amsterdam is the course Time Series Econometrics. In this course, students are taught how to analyze time series with the aid of ‘state-space models’, on the assumption that observations over time (such as the content of the Nile, for example) are driven by non-observed factors.
According to Intrum Justitia, bad debts of more than € 350 billion were written off in Europe in 2013, which is around three percent of all outstanding transactions. Internal research into Dutch companies with debtor portfolios in excess of € 250 million reveals that some companies have had to write off up to 10 percent of their net result on their customers. According to some estimates, around 25 percent of companies actually go bankrupt due to bad debt losses alone. It is with good reason that many annual reports state that credit risks are often the biggest threat to business continuity. In this article, we explain our approach to credit risk management for corporates.