Market Information Wednesday 3 March 2021

Market Information Wednesday 3 March 2021

European statistics bureau Eurostat reports that inflation in February rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in the euro zone. ING Bank indicates that inflation is currently constant, but that it is a matter of time until it rises above 2%, after which it will level off again in 2022, which would reduce concerns of the ECB, as rising interest rates could reduce economic recovery.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) warns that current stock prices on mainly European and American financial markets could be too high. These prices would not be in line with the real economy, which could cause a correction.

The Dutch government’s trade mission to Qatar has been postponed by outgoing minister Sigrid Kaag. The reason for this is an article of The Guardian written last week, which made it clear that 6,500 workers were killed in the construction of stadiums for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. It is not yet clear when and if the trade mission will take place.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.04% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 2 March 2021

Market Information Tuesday 2 March 2021

Industrial companies outperform in the current corona crisis. According to British market researcher Markit, activity in the sector continued to increase last month, reaching its highest level in three years. Corona measures in the eurozone have paralysed large parts of the consumer-oriented services sector, leading to more consumer spending on manufactured goods. The higher growth does create some problems in the supply chain.

Dutch retailers will not recover from the corona crisis until 2022, according to ABN AMRO which published its forecasts in a new report. The bank also expects a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies, before recovery will start. For this year, the bank expects a contraction of 1.5% in the retail sector, as during the first half of the year restrictions still apply to retail shops. In 2022, ABN Amro expects the sector to grow with 1.5%.

The Turkish economy grew at the highest pace in the last quarter of 2020, just lagging China. Over 2020 in total, the Turkish economy also grew, despite the fact that tourism has dropped significantly as a result of the corona crisis. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.9% in the fourth quarter, bringing growth to 1.8% for the year 2020. The Turkish government encouraged banks to be generous with loans last year to allow businesses and consumers to survive the corona crisis.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to -0.03% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 1 March 2021

Market Information Monday 1 March 2021

Worldwide interest rates are on the rise, impacting the stock markets. The imminent reopening of economies is expected to lead to a significant recovery in economic growth, this is agreed upon by economists worldwide. When growth would increase consumers will spend more saved during the crisis, which could lead to higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates. Especially in the US, investors expect the recovery of the economy to be stronger causing inflation to rise.

Global demand for oil is expected to increase following the expected recovery of the world economy. Global inventories are said to be decreasing at the steepest rate in two decades. Prices have rallied to pre-coronavirus levels, while U.S. production has taken a hit from freezing storms. Though demand for aviation fuels remains low, purchases of products that cater to working and consuming at home, have boomed.

The UK will launch its first sovereign green savings bonds this week, offering retail investors the chance to invest in sustainable projects such as renewable energy schemes. A savings bond will be offered this year through National Savings & Investments, the government-backed savings scheme.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 0.03% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 26 February 2021

Market Information Friday 26 February 2021

Final figures published by the European Commission on Thursday show that the consumer confidence index in the eurozone increased to minus 14.8 in February 2021, from minus 15.5 in January 2021. In addition, economic sentiment in the eurozone improved slightly as well, from an index level of 91.5 in January 2021 to a level of 93.4 in February 2021.

The US economy grew by 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the third quarter of 2020, according to a second estimate of the US Department of Commerce on Thursday. Economists had expected growth of 4.2 percent. In the third quarter of 2020 the economy increased with 33.4 percent compared to the second quarter of 2020. This was the strongest growth since the start of the current series of measurements in the United States.

Producer prices in the Dutch industry decreased by 2.2 percent in January 2021 compared to January 2020, according to Statistics Netherlands. The decline is lower than in December 2020, when prices decreased by 4.1 percent on annual basis. It is the eleventh month in a row that producer prices have decreased.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 0.10% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 25 February 2021

Market Information Thursday 25 February 2021

Credit rating agency Moody’s adjusted its forecast for the Eurozone’s economic growth. Previously, Moody’s expected a growth of 4.7% over 2021, but this has now been adjusted to 3.7%. This is mainly due to the strict lockdowns that are still in effect in many European countries, which are taking longer than first expected. While the UK’s growth rate was also revised downwards, figures for the Chinese and US economies were set higher this time. The growth rate of the latter was previously estimated at 4.2%, but has been adjusted to 4.7%. Moody’s further expects the combined economies of the G20 to grow by 5.3% over 2021.

The extensive support package presented by President Biden has garnered the support of 150 top American executives. In a letter, executives from Goldman Sachs, Google, IBM and American Airlines, among others, express their support for the 1.9 trillion-dollar package. The letter calls on Congress to quickly approve the aid package. It would be needed to “set the economy on course for a strong and sustained recovery.”

The commodities market is off to a spectacular start in 2021 and some analysts are now talking about a so-called “super cycle.” In such a cycle, prices continue to rise for years as supply lags structurally behind demand. Drivers of this trend are, among others, the fear of high inflation and a sharply rising demand for various metals. These are necessary for the production of renewable energy generators, such as solar panels and wind turbines. The previous super cycle occurred with the meteoric rise of China at the turn of the century. According to most market followers, however, it is far too early to say whether we are in a super cycle this time.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.01% compared to previous business day.